DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/23 10:54
Corn, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Soybeans Lower
Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midday Monday; soybean futures are 6
to 19 cents lower; wheat futures are 10 to 17 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the S&P up 65 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 105 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are
mostly higher with crude up .10 and natural gas up .37. Livestock trade is
mostly higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 8.50.
Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midday with flat spread action as
trade works sideways to start the week, keeping action rangebound. The daily
export wire has been quiet, while basis shows some signs of life again. Weekly
export inspections bounced solidly to 1.699 million metric tons (mmt) on
Monday's report. The ethanol margins look to remain rangebound near term with
Memorial Day demand likely to pull stocks down a bit. The second crop in Brazil
will head for the homestretch with drier weather in much of Brazil with some
potential early frost threats short term. U.S. weather continues to keep
moisture in much of the belt with cooler weather until midweek. Monday's weekly
Crop Progress report is expected show good gains in planting progress over the
past week, but solidly behind the five-year average on planting and emergence
with no condition reports likely until next week. On the July contract chart,
we have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $7.93 with the lower
Bollinger Band at $7.67 as support.
Soybean futures are 6 to 19 cents lower at midday with trade backing off the
initial overnight highs with spread action soft to start the week with July
falling back below $17.00 nearby. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 lower and oil is 55 to
65 points lower as trade works to rebalance crush margins with the recent
bounce in meal values running out of steam. South America is moving toward
post-harvest footing at this point. Planting in the U.S. remains sluggish with
the expected moisture this week and the cooldown slowing emergence again. The
weekly Crop Progress report is expected to show both remaining well behind
average. Weekly export inspections were softer at 575,781 metric tons (mt). On
the July soybean chart, we are well above the 20-day moving average at $16.53
with the upper Bollinger band at $17.25 the next round up.
Wheat futures are 10 to 17 cents higher at midday with trade finding footing
on cold weather in the western U.S. Plains, well-above average temperatures in
western Europe, and little progress on the Black Sea political front. The U.S.
dollar is fading back off the highs as well. Warmer weather is expected to
return later this week to push maturity again, but that will lag overall on the
weekly crop progress report, along with conditions remaining poor overall, and
spring wheat progress well behind average. Weekly export inspections were
sideways at 309,501 mt. KC wheat is back to an 18-cent discount to Minneapolis
in narrower action, and at an 89-cent premium to Chicago, narrowing a bit. The
KC July chart has resistance at the Upper Bollinger Band at $13.76, with the
20-day moving average well below the market at $12.08.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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