USDA Reports Summary 12/10 11:50
USDA Leaves Corn and Soybean Production, Supply and Demand Unchanged
USDA on Tuesday released its latest December Crop Production and World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.
By DTN Staff
This article was originally posted at 11:05 a.m. CST. It was last updated at
OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA still projects corn production at 13.66 billion bushels
(bb) and soybean production at 3.55 bb. The agency also left yields untouched,
with the average corn yield pegged at 167 bushels per acre (bpa) and soybeans
at 46.9 bpa.
Those estimates were in line with market expectations for USDA's December
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. With millions of
bushels of grain still unharvested and no new numbers from NASS this month,
revised crop estimates for the 2019 crop season will likely wait until the
January 2020 WASDE, DTN analysts noted.
USDA also did not make any changes to domestic supply and demand, which left
corn and soybean ending stocks the same.
According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday's new U.S. ending stocks
estimates were neutral for corn and soybeans; slightly bullish for wheat. The
2019-20 world ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn and
wheat, but neutral for soybeans.
Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the
reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.
For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit:
You can also access the full reports here:
-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
As with production and yield, USDA left corn harvested acres at 81.8 million
this month, the same as their November estimate.
Corn ending stocks remained at 1.91 bb, the same as last month and within
pre-report analyst expectations.
USDA also left average farm-gate prices for corn at $3.85 dollars per
bushel, the same as its November estimate.
USDA left Brazil and Argentina corn production unchanged from November, at
101 million metric tons (mmt) and 50 mmt, respectively.
USDA did make other tweaks to the global corn supply and demand, however.
Overall, foreign corn ending stocks were raised from last month, with increases
in China, Bolivia and Taiwan. As a result, global corn ending stocks are
estimated at 300.56 mmt, up 4.6 mmt from 295.96 mmt in November, and above the
range of pre-report analyst estimates.
Total global corn demand increased slightly as well to 1,127.23 mmt, up from
1,126.27 mmt in the November report.
As with corn, soybean harvested acres were left untouched at 75.6 million
Soybean ending stocks remained at 475 mb, within pre-report expectations,
and USDA left export and use estimates untouched as well.
Only average soybean farmgate prices were adjusted downward to $8.85 per
bushel, down 15 cents from November.
Globally, soybean ending stocks rose to 96.4 mmt, up from 95.42 mmt in
November, based on increases for China and Brazil. USDA left Brazil and
Argentina soybean production estimates untouched at 123 mmt and 53 mmt,
Global soybean exports were adjusted down 0.6 mmt to 149.15 mmt, based on a
lower forecast for Argentina.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 were trimmed to 974 million bushels
(mb), down from the month's total of 1.014 bb and below pre-report estimates.
Given that production remained the same, that drop was driven by increased
exports and lowered imports.
Specifically, USDA boosted exports by 25 mb, based on more competitive
prices and reduced supplies from several major competitors. They dropped wheat
imports 15 mb to 105 mb, which -- if realized -- would be the lowest imports in
Despite tighter supplies, wheat's estimated average farm-gate price of $4.55
per bushel was 5 cents lower than last month.
Globally, 2019-20 ending stocks were estimated at a record 289.50 million
metric tons, up 1.22 mmt from last month and above pre-report estimates, based
on a 1.4-mmt decrease in global use.
Editor's Note: For a brief discussion of USDA's latest estimates we will
have a Facebook Live broadcast from DTN's Ag Summit in Chicago, starting around
11:45 a.m. CST. To watch, visit: http://www.facebook.com/dtnprogressivefarmer
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20
Dec Average High Low Nov
Corn 1,910 1,859 1,960 1,479 1,911
Soybeans 475 472 522 345 475
Wheat 974 1,000 1,050 913 1,014
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20
Dec Avg. High Low Nov
Corn 300.6 295.6 298.2 292.0 296.0
Soybeans 96.4 96.2 101.9 94.0 95.4
Wheat 289.5 286.3 288.5 283.9 288.3
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