DTN Midday Livestock Comments          10/09 11:30

   Traders Hit the Pause Button on Livestock Complex's Rally

   The cash cattle market is still silent with no bids having been offered yet.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex has stalled its upward trend as traders need a little 
more fundamental support than what they've currently seen in the sector. Still 
no cash cattle trade has developed and it's likely that trade will be delayed 
until Thursday or Friday. December corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and December 
soybean meal is up $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 371.05 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   Traders are hitting the pause button on the live cattle market's rally as 
the complex trades slightly lower into Wednesday's noon hour. Yes, boxed beef 
prices are higher which is another positive fundamental point that feedlot 
managers will surely take note of, but traders are seeming hesitant to advance 
the contracts any more ahead of seeing what the cash market accomplishes this 
week. Asking prices of $188 are currently noted in the South, but still no 
asking prices have been noted for the North. It's very likely that the week's 
trade could be delayed until Friday as feedlot managers are going to push for 
higher prices again this week, but packers will be reluctant to pay up as 
they're trying to manage thin margins already as it is. So until the cash 
cattle market trades, monitoring boxed beef prices will be important, and 
hopefully traders can sit idle and not grow worrisome in their waiting. October 
live cattle are down $0.07 at $188.40, December live cattle are down $0.52 at 
$187.35 and February live cattle are down $0.67 at $188.25.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.61 ($308.45) and select up $0.87 
($289.48) with a movement of 105 loads (79.29 loads of choice, 16.02 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 9.68 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle complex is feeling some pressure as the market notes the 
live cattle complex's slight regression and is really needing the extra support 
today given that traders pushed the spot November contract above the market's 
100-day moving average. At this point, traders aren't finding enough 
supplemental support to keep the November contract above that threshold, as all 
of the contracts are trading slightly lower into the noon hour. And even though 
buyer demand is incredibly strong in the countryside, unless the live cattle 
contracts turn higher, feeders will likely keep this lower tone through the 
day's end. October feeders are down $1.00 at $249.32, November feeders are down 
$1.65 at $248.65 and January feeders are down $1.52 at $245.92.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex is also trading lower as the market is up against 
resistance and isn't finding enough fundamental support to create higher trade. 
December lean hogs are down $1.77 at $75.40, February lean hogs are down $1.60 
at $79.17 and April lean hogs are down $1.40 at $83.67. Friday's WASDE report 
will be especially interesting for the market as hopefully producers and 
traders alike will get a better sense of what demand and prices could be for 
the fourth quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025 with there being ample 
supplies of hogs currently on the market weighing 180 pounds or more.

   The projected lean hog index for 10/8/2024 is up $0.25 at $84.47, and the 
actual index for 10/7/2024 is down $0.04 at $84.22. Hog prices on the Daily 
Direct Morning Hog Report average $75.52, ranging from $74.00 to $76.50 on 
1,827 head and a five-day rolling average of $75.31. Pork cutouts total 189.58 
loads with 161.08 loads of pork cuts and 28.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout 
values: up $0.82, $95.63.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com

    

    




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